Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Two weeks until the Election: Where do they stand.
So right now everyone is following presidential tracking polls like they were the Dow Jones Industrial Index. The AP has Obama at +1% over McCain while Fox News has Obama at +9. To sum it up every Major national tracking poll has Obama with a comfortable lead. On a state to state basis Obama has recently gained a large advantage (+7 Cnn) in Virginia which only a week ago was a tossup state. North Carolina which was also supposed to be an easy hold for the Republican party has now shown to be leaning Obama (3.1% Zogby, 5% Cnn). As it stands Obama will win three southern states; Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has carried a southern state without having been born or served in the south since Kennedy (Johnson, Clinton and Nixon were all from the south). Anything can happen in the last two weeks but even if John McCain were to win the three aformentioned southern states and Ohio, Colorado and Nevada he still would come up short on the 270 electoral votes need when compared to Obama's safe states. I will follow up in the next few days on some more local polling as they become available. For more election info visit http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/ and fivethirtyeight.com.
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